Although Avatar and The Hurt Locker tied for the most nominations (with 9 apiece), there doesn’t appear to be any race at all. Locker’s unexpected citation for Marco Beltrami’s disquieting score, coupled with Avatar’s misses in the song and screenplay categories seems to suggest Bigelow’s film has the edge in this David vs Goliath struggle. Given Locker’s triumph at the recent PGA and DGA awards, we already seem to have our anointed Best Picture winner. However, given the newly introduced preferential voting system that rewards consensus over passion pockets, Up in the Air and possibly, Inglourious Basterds have realistic shots at pulling off an upset. As Up in the Air missed a crucial editing nomination (which is generally a prerequisite to win Best Picture), its trophy haul looks to be limited to the Adapted screenplay win.
The directing and three out of the four acting categories were essentially sewn up prior to nominations and so the nominations for Bridges, Waltz and Mo’Nique make them shoo-ins to win the Oscar. Fresh off a SAG win, The Blind Side’s best picture berth the Best Actress Oscar would appear to be engraved with Bullock’s name, but there is a precedent to Streep pulling off an upset. In 2007, Julie Christie and Marion Cotillard were players in one of the most hotly-contested Best Actress duels in a long time, with Christie clinching the Globe (Drama) and SAG before Globe (Comedy/Musical) and BAFTA winner Cotillard stormed in a frenzy of last-minute buzz to seize a win. This year’s race bears eerie similarities to 2007 – both Bullock and Streep took him a Globe and Bullock won the SAG. If Streep manages to pull off a BAFTA victory over the widely-favoured Mulligan, we could be looking at a repeat of 2007’s memorable tussle.
The White Ribbon and A Prophet have been duking it out all season, with Ribbon edging out Audiard’s gritty prison piece at the recent Golden Globes. However, critical sentiment alone does not guarantee a win in this fickle category. Last year, the foreign film branch awarded Japan’s tear-jerking Departures the gong over two Cannes-lauded and perceived frontrunners in the category – Israel’s Waltz with Bashir and France’s The Class. So what could be this year’s Departures? My money money is on The Secret in their Eyes, reportedly an accessible dramatic thriller from Juan Jose Campanella, a previous nominee in this category for 2001’s Son of the Bride.
Original screenplay is a two-pronged race between The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds. While both films have widespread support from the Academy (scoring picture, director, acting, writing and a bevy of technical nominations), Tarantino is a clearly respected screenwriter, having taken home the Oscar in the same category for 1994’s Pulp Fiction. Basterds’ zingy dialogue, memorable scenes and the desire to award the film in more categories than just supporting actor might just swing the vote towards Tarantino. However, the Academy clearly embraced Locker and if it follows a similar trajectory to Milk, the support for Hurt Locker may allow it to eke out a win over other more obviously writer-friendly efforts, such as the Coens’ dark horse A Serious Man or Tarantino’s Basterds. Right now, I’m giving Locker the edge only because of its greater nomination tally but this category will be one of the most tightly-fought races on Oscar night.
On to the technical races, I’d say cinematography is between Fiore (Avatar), Ackroyd (Locker) and Richardson (Basterds), with possible digital bias hurting Avatar’s chances. Despite Ackroyd’s frenetic hand-held work being so effective in generating suspense during Locker’s several action sequences, it is not traditionally “pretty” in the style that the Academy often responds to (The English Patient, Brokeback Mountain, Memoirs of a Geisha). This leaves Richardson, lensing the European-flavoured Basterds, in good stead to snag a statuette.
A split looks feasible in the sound categories – Avatar to take mixing and Locker editing (although a reversal or an Avatar sweep are both plausible scenarios). Art direction looks to be a wide-open field: Basterds’ strange omission from the category means Parnassus actually has a legitimate shot to take home the gold for its extravagantly loopy creations, although Avatar’s detailed realisation of Pandora and The Young Victoria’s regal sets should not be discounted.
Whatever the outcome on Oscar night, here’s hoping for a few shocks to shake up this year’s thoroughly predictable awards season!
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