A Prophet sweeps the Césars

The staggering (and well-deserved) 9-trophy haul for “A Prophet” at the Césars (including major wins for Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting actor and Original screenplay) is sure to bode well for its chances of walking away with the Foreign Film prize at the upcoming Academy Awards. Fresh off a BAFTA win earlier in the week, there appears to be a groundswell of last-minute support for Jacques Audiard’s gritty prison-cum-coming-of-age pic that renders the earlier frontrunner status of “The White Ribbon” murkier by the minute. Given the somewhat esoteric lineup the foreign film branch assembled this year, frankly, I would not be surprised if “A Prophet” did manage to win the Oscar. It is undoubtedly an assured, visceral and ultimately, momentous piece of work.

The baseless following of Clint Eastwood (seemingly in all corners of the globe) was reflected by 2008′s hold-over “Gran Torino” taking the foreign film award.

Having not seen the rest of the anointed films, there really isn’t much else to remark upon. A full list of winners, courtesy of InContention, after the cut:

“The White Ribbon” wins ASC; “The Hurt Locker” takes CAS

Christian Berger’s stark black and white monochrome work on Michael Haneke’s twice Oscar-nominated The White Ribbon has deservedly taken the three cinematography prizes at the Los Angeles Film Critics, New York Film Critics and the National Society of Film Critics awards. Now its got the guild on its side. Coming up trumps against presumed frontrunner Avatar and hot threat The Hurt Locker, Ribbon would seem to be a plausible threat to take out the win, if Avatar’s gigantic visuals weren’t so inescapably visceral and immersive.

The Ribbon victory may suggest Avatar’s win in that category at the Oscars is far from assured. Locker and Inglourious Basterds are still the more aggressive contenders to keep an eye out for though. I’m not sure enough people saw (or even admired enough) The White Ribbon to put it at number 1 for cinematography. With the entire Academy membership voting, the eye-candiest visuals tend to win here, namely anything Avatar or Basterds in appearance. But Locker’s dominance and Ribbon’s esteem should not be underestimated. I’m calling it right now for Avatar, with The Hurt Locker as alternate.

Meanwhile, Locker continues its dominance throughout the precursor season with another triumph, this time at the Cinema Audio Society awards where it won for best sound mixing of the year. Again fending off Avatar, The Hurt Locker would look to be a strong bet for Sound Mixing, while Avatar looks set to snatch the Sound Editing prize.

“Young Victoria”, “Parnassus”, “Crazy Heart” take out CDG Awards

The Young Victoria continues its march to an Oscar with a win in the period category at the recent Costume Designers Guild Awards. Edging out Oscar nominees Nine and Coco Before Chanel as expected, Victoria’s win seems to affirm the Academy’s penchant for English frocks with only the fantasy-winning Parnassus as the lone spoiler for the win. Crazy Heart picked up a prize for best contemporary costuming.

There will be those who say Victoria is not a sure thing but frankly, with 2 other nominations in Make Up and Art Direction, I’d say the writing’s firmly on the wall.

“Avatar”, “Basterds” winners at MPSE

The Motion Picture Sound Editors have had their say, anointing Avatar the winner for music and effects editing while Basterds was victorious for the mixing of dialogue. Up predictably won on the animation side.

That leaves Avatar the favourite for Sound Editing, with a sweep of the sound awards possible if it manages to clinch Sound Mixing away from recent BAFTAs giant The Hurt Locker. It would be worth it to watch out for Basterds in the Sound Mixing category, with the esteemed Wylie Stateman (a somewhat shock nominee for 2007′s Wanted) doing the mixing duties.

As always, we wait to see if things can get just that little bit clearer.

Locker dazzles BAFTA (and looks dangerous on Oscar night)

Kathryn Bigelow’s pulsatingly tense war pic “The Hurt Locker” continued its steamroll through the precursors, making an impressive showing at the BAFTAs  by collecting 6 awards, including Best Film and Best Director as predicted. Significantly, its impressive showing here is the largest since 1999′s “American Beauty”, which went on to win 6 Oscars (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Original Screenplay and Best Cinematography). Given the widespread critical praise lavished on “Locker” by the guilds and (virtually all of the) major critics groups, “Locker” could end up taking home the very same awards as “Beauty”, although Best Actor is probably going to the sentimental odds-on favourite Jeff Bridges. I think “Locker” has already earmarked 4 Oscars but will probably win a few more.

Hopping off the “Locker” express, BAFTA largely gave a collective pat on the back to the season’s frontrunners – Christoph Waltz and Mo’Nique (who should be engraving their Oscars as we speak) taking the supporting categories, “Up in the Air” won yet another Adapted Screenplay prize and “Up” took out Animated Film. Unsurprisingly, BAFTA were unashamedly patriotic in handing their Best Actor and Best Actress awards to Colin Firth (“A Single Man”) and Carey Mulligan (“An Education”) respectively. Expect Bullock (or perennial bridesmaid Streep) to replace Mulligan at the Oscars.

In other awards, “Fish Tank” made good on its sole nomination by taking out Best British film over the likes of “An Education”, “Moon” and “In the Loop” while “A Prophet” ensured a photo-finish for the Foreign Film Oscar with its Cannes brethren “The White Ribbon” by winning Best Foreign film.

Courtesy of the tireless Guy Lodge and folks at InContention, further commentary and a full winners list, reproduced after the jump:

“The Hurt Locker, “Up in the Air”, “The Cove” win at WGA

As expected, The Hurt Locker took  the WGA prize for best original screenplay in a field lacking the WGA-disqualified close rival/Oscar threat Inglourious Basterds. Suffice to say those waters will remain muddied all the way to March 7, when the Oscars are finally handed out. Up in the Air continues its unhurried march to its solitary Oscar win, while The Cove took out honours on the documentary side.

 It must be noted that for all those keeping score, no film has ever won Best Picture without taking one of the three major guilds (DGA, PGA, SAG) or the ACE along the way. The Hurt Locker has all of them; Avatar none. Whether Avatar can still pull off a Best Picture victory remains to be seen, but this may just be the final nail in the coffin for Cameron’s “Avatanic” blockbuster where Best Picture is concerned.

BAFTAs Preview

And now for a last minute run through the likely winners at this Sunday’s BAFTA awards. Enjoy.

MAKE UP & HAIR
COCO BEFORE CHANEL Thi Thanh Tu Nguyen, Madeleine Cofano, Jane Milon
AN EDUCATION Lizzie Yianni Georgiou
THE IMAGINARIUM OF DOCTOR PARNASSUS Sarah Monzani
NINE Peter Swords King
THE YOUNG VICTORIA Jenny Shircore

This category seems populated by an abundance of “hair” nominees
rather than make-up – from the sleek, sultry looks of Nine to the posh fashionista stylings of Coco Before Chanel, The Young Victoria and An Education, the category might as well be named “Best Hair”. Coco Before Chanel arguably has the most support of all the nominees (with 4 nominations in total), but one can’t help feeling that The Young Victoria’s distinctive manipulation of royal wigs and hairstyles will win over BAFTA voters. An Education’s nod here seems calculated to project more weight behind the lone British Best Picture nominee, which despite its field-leading tally of nominations (at 8 if you include the “Best British Film” citation), doesn’t really seem a threat for the win with its unremarkable crafts. Nine’s critical drubbing and lone nomination makes it an unlikely contender for victory and Imaginarium, while featuring stellar, highly deserving
work from Monzani, will have to sit back and watch the film with the
highest profile swoop in for the kill.

Bottom line: The Young Victoria takes it but watch out for Coco Before Chanel to surprise.

A Prophet named Film of the Year by London Film Critics

A scene from Jacques Audiard's "A Prophet"

In something of a surprise, Jacques Audiard’s A Prophet (which I will be finally getting around to seeing within a week’s time) took out top honours at the recent London Film Critics awards. Bigelow took yet another director trophy for the stunning The Hurt Locker, while the two supporting powerhouses, Christoph Waltz and Mo’Nique wrestled the Actor and Actress of the Year awards away from a number of ballyhoed leading contenders in their category including Jeff Bridges, Carey Mulligan, Meryl Streep and George Clooney. As wisely demonstrated by the London critics, sometimes the performance speaks for itself, lead, supporting or otherwise.

Fish Tank was the big British winner on the night, taking four wins in total including Best British Film, Best British Director (Andrea Arnold), Best British Supporting Actor (for the versatile, talented Michael Fassbender) and Best Young British Performer (for newcomer Katie Jarvis).

Full winners (thanks to In Contention) after the jump:

WGA this week? Yeah, I hear ya.

The Writers Guild of America awards will be held this Saturday. With so many of the year’s Oscar-nominated screenplays ineligible, the awards are inevitably less relevant than they might otherwise have been. So, a grain of salt is in order when considering the consequences of how they vote.

The nominees are:

Original Screenplay:
(500) Days of Summer (Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber)
Avatar (James Cameron)
The Hangover (Jon Lucas, Scott Moore)
The Hurt Locker (Mark Boal)
A Serious Man (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen)

With Inglourious Basterds ineligible here, The Hurt Locker should take this category with little trouble. If anything else wins (A Serious Man seems the only reasonable spoiler), it may be a sign of weakness and indicative of a Tarantino triumph at the impending Oscars where Tarantino and Boal will go head to head. All the signs point towards a dog fight all the way to the podium which serves as a useful barometer for the Best Picture winner on the night.

If The Hurt Locker indeed takes this, it will have taken four major guild prizes (DGA, PGA, ACE and WGA). Since the PGA first started giving out awards in 1989, no film with DGA/PGA/ACE has missed out on one of Best Picture or Best Director at the Oscars. With Bigelow seemingly primed for the win, Best Picture would also appear to be done and dusted if The Hurt Locker snatches up the win here. But Basterd’s ineligibility hangs over this category like a dark cloud, and Tarantino should never be underestimated. We’ll see how the wind blows on Saturday.

Adapted Screenplay:
Crazy Heart (Scott Cooper)
Julie & Julia (Nora Ephron)
Precious (Geoffrey Fletcher)
Star Trek (Robert Kurtzman, Roberto Orci)
Up in the Air (Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner)

There’s really very little to add in this space, apart from the fact that more may be needed in the trophy cabinets of Reitman and Turner.

The skinny: original goes to The Hurt Locker (spoiler A Serious Man) and adapted to Up in the Air (no spoiler).

Locker is ACE

Tonight’s Eddie victory to Kathryn Bigelow’s mesmerisingly compelling “The Hurt Locker” definitely positions it as the one to beat come Oscar night. Dashing the hopes of those trying to position the Best Picture category as a two-horse race between “Locker” and James Cameron’s “Avatar”, “Locker’s” win here puts another feather in its already impressive cap that consists of wins at the two top guilds, the DGA and PGA. Given the enviable track record the ACE has in predicting the Film editing Oscar winner, “Locker” looks tantalisingly close to being our next Best Picture winner given the strong correlation that exists between the two categories.

A win at the WGA now looks increasingly likely (especially since “Inglourious Basterds” was given the shaft by the Guild’s ridiculous eligibility rules). It’s overwhelmingly clear that most of the guilds have rallied around “The Hurt Locker”, let’s see if the Academy follows suit.

In the other categories, “The Cove” and “Up” build on recent wins at the DGA and Annies respectively by taking out the Documentary and Animated categories, while “The Hangover” was a slight-surprise victor over the much-fancied “(500) Days of Summer” and the idiosyncratic “A Serious Man”.

Art Directors Guild winners

Overall, there were few real surprises to be found in the ADG winners. Sarah Greenwood (Sherlock Holmes) and Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg (Avatar) make auspicious starts to their potential Oscar wins by by taking out the Period and Fantasy categories respectively. It’s definitely telling that Avatar and Sherlock Holmes, the sole Oscar nominees from the 15 films nominated by the Guild, both managed to pull off wins here.

The real talking point was in the Contemporary category, with Karl Juliusson’s austere work on The Hurt Locker edging out more accessible fare like The Lovely bones and Up in the Air. I’m definitely an enthusiastic supporter of Locker (it was my number two film of 2009 after all) but its art direction was certainily nothing to write home about. Chalk it up as a repeat of 2008 where Slumdog Millionaire, last year’s widely-admired Best Picture frontrunner, steamrolled the guild circuit (and was awarded the gong from the ADG in the contemporary category as well). With a win from the ADG, Locker seems to be mustering up as much support as Slumdog did last year – and that culminated in a Best Picture win for Danny Boyle’s crowdpleasing hit. Let’s hope lightning strikes twice this year for a thoroughly more deserving film.

Up takes off with Annie

So after a Wall-E shutout last year, Pixar is back on top with “Up”, which took Picture and Director prizes at the recent 37th Annual Annie Awards. 

In a widely noted bumper year for animation, the Annies decided to spread the wealth: ”The Princess and the Frog” and nomination leader “Coraline” each snared 3 awards and “Fantastic Mr Fox” picked up yet another screenwriting honour for Wes Anderson and Noah Baumbach.

Can’t say it makes the race any more exciting at this point. ”Up” has been an assured winner for months now and its recent Best Picture nomination is proof. Don’t let the “Fox”  hype deceive you.

Check out the full list of winners at Variety.

Scripter gets some Air

The USC Scripter, which recognises exemplary film adaptations and their source materials (read: novels), bestowed their prize today on Jason Reitman’s existential dramedy Up in the Air and the Walter Kirn’s novel of the same name. Of course, this announcement was rather unsurprising given Air has dominated the screenplay prizes throughout the entire awards season. Now with the Scripter’s stamp of approval, a victory at the Academy Awards seems inevitable.

At least Air won’t go home empty handed on Oscar night…

Unpacking the Oscar nominations

Although Avatar and The Hurt Locker tied for the most nominations (with 9 apiece), there doesn’t appear to be any race at all. Locker’s unexpected citation for Marco Beltrami’s disquieting score, coupled with Avatar’s misses in the song and screenplay categories seems to suggest Bigelow’s film has the edge in this David vs Goliath struggle. Given Locker’s triumph at the recent PGA and DGA awards, we already seem to have our anointed Best Picture winner. However, given the newly introduced preferential voting system that rewards consensus over passion pockets, Up in the Air and possibly, Inglourious Basterds have realistic shots at pulling off an upset. As Up in the Air missed a crucial editing nomination (which is generally a prerequisite to win Best Picture), its trophy haul looks to be limited to the Adapted screenplay win.

Off the cuff thoughts on the Oscar nominations

I managed 40/45 in the top 8 categories and 82/106 in the 21 categories I predicted (excluding the shorts). Not too shabby considering that out of the entire crop of 2009 films, I only managed to catch The Hurt Locker and Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince before knuckling down with my guesses.

Biggest surprises for me were:

• The Blind Side’s entry in the Best Picture race: Though when one looks at the phenomenal record-breaking success the Bullock vehicle has enjoyed this feeling lessens considerably. Coupled with the film’s definitive message for racial integration embedded within a classic triumph-against-all-odds story, it must’ve been catnip for the voters.

Avatar, Hurt Locker Lead with 9 Nominations

The Academy’s expansion of the Best Picture category seems to have paid off, with a mix of Sundance independents (Precious, An Education), populist studio hits (Avatar, The Blind Side, Inglourious Basterds, District 9 and Up in the Air) and auteurial pieces (The Hurt Locker, A Serious Man and Inglourious Basterds) represented. This of course means the 10-wide crazy experiment field will be here to stay for a good while yet.

Analysis and reactions to follow shortly.

Picture

• Avatar
• The Blind Side
• District 9
• An Education
• The Hurt Locker
• Inglourious Basterds
• Precious
• A Serious Man
• Up
• Up in the Air

Nobody knows anything

Admittedly, awards season is a guilty pleasure for all concerned. It is that sickly sweet cake you love to pieces in those first few samplings, but one you avoid like the plague whenever it threatens to do repeat business. Personally, I’m always partial to some sugary goodness and so, with trademark optimism, I roll the dice to satiate my cravings. Anyone playing the game of prognostication – a curious mix of luck, industry analysis, historical trends and intuition – knows not to expect a good outcome. More than not, as The Dark Knight’s snubbing for Best Director and Best Picture last year showed me, you tend to end up with egg on your face. As Awards Daily often espouses, “Nobody Knows Anything”.

In the wake of blog buddy Craig’s Name Those Nominees Contest, I’ve prepared my final Oscar predictions before the nominees are announced on Tuesday.

My Best Picture 10 are:

An Education
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Precious (I’m not writing out that insane subtitle, it wreaks havoc on the sidebar!)
Star Trek
Up
Up in the Air